Is the Entertainment Fading? This Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer scores from open play compared to at this stage last season.

A key narrative of the EPL this campaign is the drop of scoring in open play and how teams are netting more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less in total.

Examining the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.

Regardless of the notable jump in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from these situations excluding penalties, demonstrating the efficiency teams are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Show the Tale

Over 300 goals notched in 110 matches to date averages out at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the smallest for since 2020-21, since 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only under 200 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the smallest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

The 2009-10 season is also the sole English top-flight campaign to see goals scored more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant decline, netting a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open play goals is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring at least five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is mainly because them netting numerous scores at the beginning of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to score in open-play the current term.

Conversely Manchester City have experienced the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores to date coming in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared the promoted teams with the relegated sides they took the place of. Play-off champions the Black Cats have netted an additional three goals in open play than Southampton managed in their opening 11 matches leading to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from set-plays (excluding penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with the two clubs replacing the five less goals that they've netted in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

Manchester United have recorded twice as many goals from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games last season prior to their coach assumed control, while Sunderland additionally have been more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

Man City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, as they've recorded three fewer than last season, similar to Forest, even if this may result from the change in style they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – are the current campaign's primary examples by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Man City represent the sole team to buck the trend up to now by doing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if teams continue to place such emphasis on set-plays as matches continue or if they find again their all-round creativity and commence scoring additional scores in open play too.

Ashley Morris
Ashley Morris

Elara is a seasoned slot enthusiast and writer, passionate about uncovering hidden gems in the gaming world and sharing actionable advice.