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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.