Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.